What’s a ‘red’ and ‘blue mirage,’ and how election night vote counts make it hard to tell who will win

Once the last voter has cast their ballot and the polls close, the process of revealing the winner begins. Election night is a time when each state starts reporting its vote totals. Some states report their votes quickly, while others take longer to tabulate. The way votes are reported can create “vote mirages,” where one candidate initially appears to have a higher percentage of the vote than they will end up with in the final count. Factors like geography, vote mode, and order of tabulation can contribute to these mirages. It’s important to consider these factors when projecting a winner in a race. For example, in North Carolina, a blue mirage may occur due to the early reporting of mail ballots, while in Pennsylvania, an early blue mirage may shift to red as Election Day votes are reported. Understanding these mirages is crucial when analyzing election results.