China’s steel exports expected to falter in 2025 as pain from tariffs spread

China’s steel exports are booming and expected to reach an eight-year high before facing challenges from trade tariffs. As the biggest steel exporter in the world, China’s steel shipments have been steadily increasing this year. However, analysts predict a decline in exports in 2025 due to anti-dumping measures imposed by other countries. This could lead to a ‘whac-a-mole’ scenario where Chinese steel producers redirect exports to other markets. Additionally, China’s domestic steel demand is dwindling, with the real estate sector facing a downturn. State-led infrastructure investments may not be enough to offset the decline in demand, leading to production cutbacks and potential bankruptcies in the industry. Lastly, Beijing’s crackdown on value-added tax evasion by steel mills could further impact the industry. Authorities are working on cracking down on illegal steel exports, as they believe it is affecting the competitiveness of Chinese exports. The government is hesitant to fully commit to this investigation, as it may have an impact on export volumes. Luo Tiejun from the Iron and Steel Industry Association mentioned the setup of an investigative team during a recent meeting. The outcome of this investigation could potentially reduce the volume of Chinese exports if it is carried out effectively.