Goldman’s election scenario probabilities and how S&P 500 will react

Goldman Sachs has analyzed potential election outcomes and their impact on the S & P 500. In a close race between Trump and Harris, the firm outlined four scenarios. A Trump win and Republican sweep could lead to a 3% rally in the S & P 500, benefiting financial and domestic cyclical stocks. A Trump win with divided government may result in a 1.5% gain, with lower Treasury yields outweighing fiscal risks. A Harris win and Democratic sweep could cause a 3% pullback due to concerns about corporate taxes. A Harris win with divided government is the most likely scenario, with a 1.5% potential fall in the S & P 500, but investors may buy the dip. Secular growth stocks, renewable stocks, and global exporters could benefit in this outcome.